Points of Reference for the Conduct of
21st Century Deterrence and Assurance Research
Deterrence and Assurance are abstract political-military concepts. They are also conditions attained in the minds of deterrees and assurees, achieved only at their respective discretion, and only in nuanced context of their unique decision spaces. Activities undertaken to achieve deterrence and assurance goals comprise planning and execution of a strategy, an equally abstract concept requiring similar research consideration. Simply stated, research involves gaining understanding of both the nature of a given deterrence and assurance problem, and how to address it.
With these themes in mind, new thinking in deterrence and assurance is not exclusively adversary and/or military in scope. It calls for research into topics that go beyond consideration of adversary military capabilities and attendant U.S./Allied means to countervail them. Topics include (but are not limited to) local, regional, and international political and economic factors; socio-cultural and decision-making dynamics; as well as psychological lines of inquiry, all of which are geared toward informing policies pursuant to tailored deterrence and allied assurance objectives.
While better understanding into how objectives might be achieved vis-à-vis a given deterrence and assurance problem set remains a central focus, equally as pertinent is appreciating the mechanics of how objectives are to be achieved. Such research involves understanding the political, fiscal, and bureaucratic aspects of marshalling limited national resources into coherent deterrence and assurance strategies. Underlying all of this is the need to understand the nature of the term strategy itself.
While not exhaustive, researchers are encouraged to consider the following alphabetized list of references selected with each of these themes in mind as they pursue efforts to add to the literature.
UNDERSTANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS:
- Deibel, Terry L. “Chapter 4: Interests, Threats, and Opportunities.” Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic for American Statecraft. (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007), pp. 123-156.
- Gaddis, John Lewis. Surprise, Security, and the American Experience. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2005).
- Hamilton, Lee H. “Defining National Interest.” Editorial. The Christian Science Monitor, (30 Mar. 1998).
- Morgenthau, Hans J. “What Is the National Interest of the United States?” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 282, The National Interest-Alone or with Others? (Jul., 1952). pp. 1-7.
- Rice, Condoleezza. “Promoting the National Interest.” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 79, No. 1 (Jan.-Feb., 2000), pp. 45-62.
- Russel, Greg. “John Quincy Adams and the Ethics of America’s National Interest.” Review of International Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Jan., 1993), pp. 23-38.
- Sondermann, Fred A. “The Concept of the National Interest.” Orbis, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Spring, 1977), pp. 121-138.
NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGIC POLICY GUIDANCE:
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE RESEARCH:
THINKING ABOUT STRATEGY:
- Betts, Richard K. “Should Strategic Studies Survive?” World Politics, Vol. 50, No. 1, Fiftieth Anniversary Special Issue (Oct., 1997), pp. 7-33.
- Bracken, Paul. “Net Assessment: A Practical Guide.” Parameters, Vol. 36 (Spring, 2006), pp. 90-100.
- Brands, Hal. “Choosing Primacy: U.S. Strategy and Global Order at the Dawn of the Post-Cold War Era.” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 1, Iss. 2 (Mar., 2018), pp. 8-33.
- Builder, Carl H. “Keeping the Strategic Flame.” Joint Forces Quarterly, No. 14 (Winter, 1996-97), pp. 76-84.
- Ellis, Jr., James O., James N. Mattis, and Kori Schake. “Chapter 10: Restoring Our National Security.” Blueprint for America. Ed. George P. Shultz. (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution, 2016). 137-150.
- Freedman, Lawrence. “The Meaning of Strategy Part I: The Origin Story.” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 1, Iss. 1 (Dec., 2017), pp. 90-105.
- Freedman, Lawrence. “The Meaning of Strategy Part II: The Objectives.” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 1, Iss. 2 (Mar., 2018), pp. 34-57.
- Gray, Colin S. “Deterrence and the Nature of Strategy.” Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2000), pp. 17-26.
- Gray, Colin S. “So What! The Meaning of Strategy.” Infinity Journal, Vol. 6, No. 1 (Winter, 2018), pp. 4-7.
- Harrison, Ross. Strategic Thinking in 3D: A Guide for National Security, Foreign Policy, and Business Professionals. (Washington, D.C.: Potomac, 2013).
- Henderson, Bruce D. “The Origin of Strategy.” Harvard Business Review, (Nov.-Dec., 1989).
- Howard, Michael. “The Forgotten Dimensions of Strategy.” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 57, No. 5 (Summer, 1979), pp. 975-986.
- Howard, Michael. “The Transformation of Strategy.” The RUSI Journal, Vol. 156, No. 4 (Aug.-Sept., 2011), pp. 12-16.
- MCDP 1-1 Strategy.
- Lykke Jr., Col. Arthur F. “Defining Military Strategy = E+W+M.” Military Review, Vol. LXIX, No. 5 (May, 1989), pp. 1-8.
- Meiser, Jeffery W. “Ends + Ways + Means = (Bad) Strategy.” Parameters, Vol. 46, No. 4 (Winter, 2016-17), pp. 81-91.
- Metz, Steven. “Why Aren’t Americans Better at Strategy?” Military Review, Vol. LXIX, No. 5 (May, 1989), pp. 9-15.
- Miller, Gregory D., Chris Rogers, Francis J. H. Park, William F. Owen, and Jeffrey W. Meiser. “On Strategy as Ends, Ways, and Means.” Parameters, Vol. 47, No. 1 (Spring, 2017), pp. 125-131.
- Mintzberg, Henry. “Patterns in Strategy Formation.” Management Science, Vol. 24, No. 9 (May, 1978), pp. 934-948.
- Owens, Mackubin. “On Strategy and Strategic Planning: Repairing America’s Strategic ‘Black Hole’.” Ed. Dakota L. Wood, pp. 51-60. 2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength: Assessing America’s Ability to Provide for the Common Defense. The Heritage Foundation.
- Ross, Dennis. Statecraft: And How to Restore America's Standing in the World. (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2008).
- Silove, Nina. “Beyond the Buzzword: The Three Meanings of ‘Grand Strategy’.” Security Studies, (2017), pp. 1-31.
- Van Riper, Lt. Gen. Paul. “From Grand Strategy to Operational Design: Getting It Right.” Infinity Journal, Vol. 4, Iss. 2 (Fall, 2014), pp. 13-18.
- Van Riper, Lt. Gen. Paul. “The Foundation of Strategic Thinking.” Infinity Journal, Vol. 2, Iss. 3 (Summer, 2012), pp. 4-10.
THINKING ABOUT THREAT
- Betts, Richard K. “Intelligence Warning: Old Problems, New Agendas.” Parameters, Vol. 28 (Spring, 1998), pp. 26-35.
- Betts, Richard K. Surprise Attack: Lessons for Defense Planning. (Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution, 1982).
- Coats, Daniel R. Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community. Director of National Intelligence, (13 February 2018).
- Grabo, Cynthia M. Anticipating Surprise: Analysis for Strategic Warning. Ed. Jan Goldman. (Center for Strategic Intelligence Research, Joint Military Intelligence College, Washington, D.C.: 2002). Web.
- Milburn, Thomas W. “The Nature of Threat.” Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 33, No. Iss. 1 (Jan., 1977), pp. 126–139.
- Singer, J. David. “Threat-Perception and the Armament-Tension Dilemma.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 2, No .1, Studies on Attitudes and Communication (Mar., 1958), pp. 90-105.
- Wohlstetter, Roberta. “Cuba and Pearl Harbor: Hindsight and Foresight.” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 43, No. 4 (Jul., 1965), pp. 691-707.
- Wohlstetter, Roberta. Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1962).
THINKING ABOUT DETERRENCE AT THE “STRATEGIC” LEVEL:
- Chilton, Gen. Kevin, and Greg Weaver. “Waging Deterrence in the 21st Century.” Strategic Studies Quarterly, (2009), pp. 31–42.
- Haney, Adm. Cecil D. “Strategic Deterrence for the Future.” Air and Space Power Journal, Vol. 29, No. 4 (Jul. – Aug., 2015), pp. 4–8.
- Payne, Keith B. “Understanding Deterrence.” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 30, No. 5 (Nov., 2011), pp. 393-427.
THINKING ABOUT DETERRENCE AT THE “OPERATIONAL” LEVEL:
- Bunn, M. Elaine. “Can Deterrence Be Tailored?” Strategic Forum, No. 225 (Jan., 2007), pp. 1–8.
- Johnson, Michael, and Terrence K. Kelly. “Tailored Deterrence: Strategic Context to Guide Joint Force 2020.” Joint Force Quarterly, 3rd Quarter, No. 74 (2014), pp. 22-29.
- Lantis, Jeffrey S. “Strategic Culture and Tailored Deterrence: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice.” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Dec., 2009), pp. 467-485.
- Payne, Keith B. “Nuclear Deterrence in a New Era: Applying ‘Tailored Deterrence’.” (May, 2018), National Institute for Public Policy.
- Anderson, Justin V., and Jeffery A. Larsen. Extended Deterrence and Allied Assurance: Key Concepts and Current Challenges for U.S. Policy. Issue brief. INSS Occasional Paper 69. (USAF Institute for National Security Studies, USAF Academy, Colorado, Sept. 2013).
- Foerster, Schuyler. “Chapter 2: NATO’s Return: Implications for Extended Deterrence.” NATO’s Return to Europe: Engaging Ukraine, Russia, and Beyond. Eds. Rebecca R. Moore and Damon V. Coletta. (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 2017), pp. 46-70.
- Howard, Michael. “Reassurance and Deterrence: Western Defense in the 1980s.” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 61, No. 2 (Winter, 1982), pp. 309-324.
DETERRENCE SUCCESS AND FAILURE
- Huth, Paul and Bruce Russett. “What Makes Deterrence Work? Cases from 1900 to 1980.” World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 4 (Jul., 1984), pp. 496-526.
- Russett, Bruce M. “The Calculus of Deterrence.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 7, No. 2 (Jun., 1963), pp. 97-109.
- Wolf, Barry. “When the Weak Attack the Strong: Failures of Deterrence.” RAND, N-3261-A (1991).
ASSOCIATED RESEARCH CATEGORIES:
- Aspin, Les. “Misreading Intelligence.” Foreign Policy, No. 43 (Summer, 1981), pp. 166-172.
- Heidenrich, John G. “The State of Strategic Intelligence: The Intelligence Community’s Neglect of Strategic Intelligence.” Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 51, No. 2 (Jun., 2007).
- Immerman, Richard H. “Intelligence and Strategy: Historicizing Psychology, Policy, and Politics.” Diplomatic History, Vol. 32, No. 1 (Jan., 2008) pp. 1-23.
- Johnson, Loch K. “Preface to a Theory of Strategic Intelligence.” International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Vol. 16, No. 4 (2003), pp. 638-63.
- Johnson, Loch. “Seven Sins of Strategic Intelligence.” World Affairs, Vol. 146, No. 2 National Security Decision Making in the White House and Its Organization (Fall, 1983), pp. 176-204.
- Johnson, Loch K. The Threat on the Horizon: An Inside Account of America’s Search for Security after the Cold War. (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011).
- Kent, Sherman. Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1966).
- Kuhns, Woodrow. “The Beginning of Intelligence Analysis in CIA - The Office of Reports and Estimates: CIA’s First Center for Analysis.” Studies in Intelligence, vol. 15, no. 2 (Jun., 2007), pp. 27–45.
- Marrin, Stephen. “Why Strategic Intelligence Analysis Has Limited Influence on American Foreign Policy.” Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 32, No. 6 (Jan., 2017), pp. 725-742.
- May, Ernest R. Knowing One's Enemies: Intelligence Assessment before the Two World Wars. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2014).
- Ransom, Harry Howe. “Strategic Intelligence and Foreign Policy.” World Politics, Vol. 27, No. 1 (Oct., 1974), pp. 131-146.
- Rose, P. K. “Two Strategic Intelligence Mistakes in Korea, 1950.” Studies in Intelligence, No. 11 (Fall, 2001).
- Russell, Richard L. “CIA’s Strategic Intelligence in Iraq.” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 117, No. 2 (Summer, 2002), pp. 191-207.
- Russell, Richard L. Sharpening Strategic Intelligence: Why the CIA Gets It Wrong and What Needs to Be Done to Get It Right. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
- Aid, Matthew M. “Sins of Omission and Commission: Strategic Cultural Factors and US Intelligence Failures During the Cold War.” Intelligence and National Security, Vol. 26, Iss. 4 (Aug., 2011), 478-494.
- Atran, Scott, and Jeremy Ginges. “Religious and Sacred Imperatives in Human Conflict.” Science, Vol. 336, Iss. 6083 (May, 2012), pp. 855-857.
- Dowdall, Jonathan. “Strategic Culture: A Look at Europe.” Infinity Journal, Vol. 1, Iss. 1 (Winter, 2010): 23-26.
- Gray, Colin. “National Style in Strategy: The American Example.” International Security, Vol. 6, No. 2 (Fall, 1999), pp. 21-47.
- Gray, Colin. “Strategic Culture as Context: The First Generation of Theory Strikes Back.” Review of International Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Jan., 1999), pp. 49-69.
- Johnson, Jeannie L., and Matthew T. Berrett. “Cultural Topography: A New Research Tool for Intelligence Analysis.” Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 55, No. 2 (Jun., 2011), pp. 1-22.
- Johnson, Jeannie L., Kerry M. Kartchner, and Jeffrey A. Larsen, eds. Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National Security Policymaking. (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009).
- Lantis, Jeffrey S. Strategic Culture: From Clausewitz to Constructivism. Issue brief. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office, Comparative Strategic Cultures Curriculum, (31 Oct. 2006).
- Mahnken, Thomas G. United States Strategic Culture. Issue brief. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office, Comparative Strategic Cultures Curriculum, (13 Nov. 2006).
- McFate, Montgomery. “The Military Utility of Understanding Adversary Culture.” Joint Forces Quarterly, No. 38 (4th Quarter, 2005), pp. 42-48.
- Knopf, Jeffrey W. Rationality, Culture and Deterrence. Rep. No. 2013-009. Project on Advanced Systems and Concepts for Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction (PASCC), (Sept., 2013).
- McVicar, Michael. “Decisions in Crisis - An Examination.” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Feb., 2015), pp. 14-43.
- Snowden, David J., and Mary E. Boone. “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making.” Harvard Business Review. (Nov., 2007).
- Solingen, Etel. Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).
- Trexel, Jonathan, “Deterring the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: The Role of Missile Defense” (2013). Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship. 28.
- Deutschman, Alan. “Change or Die.” Fast Company, (1 May 2005).
- Jervis, Robert, Richard Ned Lebow, and Janice Gross Stein. Psychology & Deterrence. (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989).
- Knorr, Klaus. “Failures in National Intelligence Estimates: The Case of the Cuban Missiles.” World Politics, Vol. 16, No. 3 (Apr., 1964), pp. 455-467.
- McDermott, Rose, Anthony C. Lopez, and Peter K. Hatemi. “‘Blunt Not the Heart, Enrage It’: The Psychology of Revenge and Deterrence.” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 1, Iss. 1 (Dec., 2017), pp. 68-88.
- Milburn, Thomas W. “The Concept of Deterrence: Some Logical and Psychological Considerations.” Journal of Social Issues, Vol. 17, Iss. 3 (1961), pp. 3-11.
- Wright, Nicholas, and Karim Sadjadpour. “The Neuroscience Guide to Negotiations with Iran.” The Atlantic, (14 Jan. 2014).
Legacy Deterrence Theory
- Jervis, Robert. “Deterrence Theory Revisited.” World Politics, Vol. 31, No. 2 (Jan., 1979), pp. 289-324.
- Kahn, Herman. On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios. (New York, NY: Routledge, 2017).
- Payne, Keith B. The Great American Gamble: Deterrence Theory and Practice from the Cold War to the Twenty-First Century. (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2008).
- Quester, George H. Deterrence before Hiroshima: The Airpower Background of Modern Strategy. (New Brunswick (U.S.A.): Transaction, 1986).
- Schelling, Thomas C. Arms and Influence. (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2009).
Deterrence in the “Second Nuclear Age”
- Colby, Elbridge. “Restoring Deterrence.” Orbis, Vol. 51, No. 3 (Summer, 2007), pp. 413-428.
- Harrison, Todd, Zack Cooper, Kaitlyn Johnson, and Thomas G. Roberts. Escalation & Deterrence in the Second Space Age. (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic & International Studies, 2017). Web.
- Joseph, Robert G. Countering WMD: The Libyan Experience. (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2009).
- Kamp, Karl-Heinz, and David S. Yost, eds. “NATO and 21st Century Deterrence.” NDC Forum Paper 8 (May, 2009).
- Knopf, Jeffrey W. “The Fourth Wave in Deterrence Research.” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Apr., 2010), pp. 1-33.
- Lupovici, Amir. “The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory—Toward a New Research Agenda.” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 54, No. 3 (Sept., 2010), pp. 705-732.
- Payne, Keith B. Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age. (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1996).
- Payne, Keith B. The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction. (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2001).
- Yoshihara, Toshi, and James R. Holmes, eds. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon. (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2012).
- MacKinney, John. “The Balance of Pain: Terrorism Deterrence in Israel.” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Feb., 2015), pp. 1-13.
- Munoz, SSgt. Megan J., and Dr. Matthew Crosston. “Diplomatic Counterterrorist Deterrence.” Air and Space Power Journal, Vol. 29, No. 4 (July – Aug., 2015), pp. 15-26.
- Rid, Thomas. “Deterrence beyond the State: The Israeli Experience.” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 33, No. 1 (Apr., 2012), pp. 124-147.
- Stone, John. “Al Qaeda, Deterrence, and Weapons of Mass Destruction.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 32, No. 9 (Aug., 2009), pp.763-775.
- Trager, Robert F., and Dessislava P. Zagorcheva. “Deterring Terrorism: It Can Be Done.” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Winter, 2005/06), pp. 87-123.
- Vinson, Mark. “An Israeli Approach to Deterring Terrorism: Managing Persistent Conflict through a Violent Dialogue of Military Operations.” Prism, Vol. 5, No. 3 (2015), pp. 61-75.
- Brands, Hal. “The Triumph and Tragedy of Diplomatic History.” Texas National Security Review, Vol. 1, No. 1 (Dec., 2017), pp. 133-43.
- Hart, B. H. Liddell. Why Don't We Learn from History? Ed. Giles Laurén. (Sophron, 2012).
- Kagan, Donald. On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace. (New York: Anchor, 1996).
- Neustadt, Richard E., and Ernest R. May. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-makers. (New York, NY: The Free Press, 1986).
- Stoessinger, John G. Why Nations Go to War. (Boston, MA: Wadsworth, 2011).
- Thucydides, History of the Peloponnesian War. Trans. Rex Warner, with an introduction and notes by M. I. Finley, rev. ed., (with a new introduction and appendices) (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, 1972).
- Tuchman, Barbara W. The Guns of August. (New York: Ballantine, 1994).
ONLINE DIGITAL RESEARCH RESOURCES
Points of Reference for the Conduct of 21st Century Deterrence and Assurance Research in PDF
Purpose & Goals I Members I Events I Research Topics I Projects I Journal I Newsletter I Selected Research Sources