Points of Reference for the Conduct of
21st Century Deterrence and Assurance Research
Deterrence and Assurance are abstract political-military concepts. They are also conditions attained in the minds of deterrees and assurees, achieved only at their respective discretion, and only in nuanced context of their unique decision spaces. Activities undertaken to achieve deterrence and assurance goals comprise planning and execution of a strategy, an equally abstract concept requiring similar research consideration. Simply stated, research involves understanding both the nature of a given deterrence and assurance problem, and how to address it.
With these themes in mind, new thinking in deterrence and assurance is not exclusively adversary and/or military in scope. It calls for research into topics that go beyond consideration of adversary military capabilities and attendant U.S./Allied means to countervail them. They involve local, regional, and international political and economic factors; socio-cultural and decision-making dynamics; as well as psychological lines of inquiry, all of which are geared toward informing policies pursuant to tailored deterrence and allied assurance objectives.
While better understanding into how objectives might be achieved vis-à-vis a given deterrence and assurance problem set remains a central focus, equally as pertinent is appreciating the mechanics of how objectives are to be achieved. Such research involves understanding the political, fiscal, and bureaucratic aspects of marshalling limited national resources into coherent deterrence and assurance strategies. Underlying all of this is the need to understand the nature of the term strategy itself.
While not exhaustive, researchers are encouraged to consider the following alphabetized list of references selected with each of these themes in mind as they pursue efforts to add to the literature.
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE SOURCE REFERENCES:
THINKING ABOUT STRATEGY:
- Builder, Carl H. “Keeping the Strategic Flame.” Joint Forces Quarterly, No. 14 (Winter, 1996-97), pp. 76-84.
- Gray, Colin S. “Deterrence and the Nature of Strategy.” Small Wars & Insurgencies, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2000), pp. 17-26.
- Harrison, Ross. Strategic Thinking in 3D: A Guide for National Security, Foreign Policy, and Business Professionals. (Washington, D.C.: Potomac, 2013).
- Henderson, Bruce D. “The Origin of Strategy.” Harvard Business Review (Nov.-Dec. 1989).
- Howard, Michael. “The Forgotten Dimensions of Strategy.” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 57, No. 5 (Summer, 1979), pp. 975-986.
- Howard, Michael. “The Transformation of Strategy.” The RUSI Journal, Vol. 156, No.4 (Aug.-Sept., 2011), pp. 12-16.
- MCDP 1-1 Strategy.
- Mintzberg, Henry. “Patterns in Strategy Formation.” Management Science, Vol. 24 No .9 (May, 1978), pp. 934-48.
- Owens, Mackubin. “On Strategy and Strategic Planning: Repairing America’s Strategic ‘Black Hole’.” Ed. Dakota L. Wood, pp. 51-60. 2017 Index of U.S. Military Strength: Assessing America’s Ability to Provide for the Common Defense. The Heritage Foundation.
- Yoshihara, Toshi, and James R. Holmes, eds. Strategy in the Second Nuclear Age: Power, Ambition, and the Ultimate Weapon. (Washington, D.C.: Georgetown University Press, 2012).
THINKING ABOUT DETERRENCE AT THE "STRATEGIC" LEVEL:
THINKING ABOUT DETERRENCE AT THE "OPERATIONAL" LEVEL:
- Bunn, M. Elaine. “Can Deterrence Be Tailored?” Strategic Forum, No. 225 (Jan., 2007), pp. 1–8.
- Johnson, Michael, and Terrence K. Kelly. “Tailored Deterrence: Strategic Context to Guide Joint Force 2020.” Joint Force Quarterly, 3rd Quarter, No. 74 (2014), pp. 22-29.
- Lantis, Jeffrey S. “Strategic Culture and Tailored Deterrence: Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice.” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Dec., 2009), pp. 467-85.
ASSOCIATED RESEARCH CATEGORIES:
- Gray, Colin. “National Style in Strategy: The American Example.” International Security, Vol. 6, No. 2 (Fall, 1999), pp. 21-47.
- Gray, Colin. “Strategic Culture as Context: The First Generation of Theory Strikes Back.” Review of International Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1 (Jan., 1999), pp. 49-69.
- Johnson, Jeannie L., and Matthew T. Berrett. “Cultural Topography: A New Research Tool for Intelligence Analysis.” Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 55, No. 2 (Jun., 2011), pp. 1-22.
- Johnson, Jeannie L., Kerry M. Kartchner, and Jeffrey A. Larsen, eds. Strategic Culture and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Culturally Based Insights into Comparative National Security Policymaking. (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009).
- Mahnken, Thomas G. United States Strategic Culture. Issue brief. Defense Threat Reduction Agency Advanced Systems and Concepts Office, Comparative Strategic Cultures Curriculum, (13 Nov. 2006).
- McVicar, Michael. “Decisions in Crisis - An Examination.” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Feb., 2015), pp. 14-43.
- Neustadt, Richard E., and Ernest R. May. Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-makers. (New York, NY: The Free Press, 1986).
- Solingen, Etel. Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2009).
- Trexel, Jonathan, “Deterring the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: The Role of Missile Defense” (2013). Political Science Department -- Theses, Dissertations, and Student Scholarship. 28.
- Wright, Nicholas, and Karim Sadjadpour. “The Neuroscience Guide to Negotiations with Iran.” The Atlantic, (14 Jan. 2014).
- Wohlstetter, Roberta. Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision. (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1962).
Legacy Deterrence Theory
- Kahn, Herman. On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios. (New York, NY: Routledge, 2017).
- Payne, Keith B. The Great American Gamble: Deterrence Theory and Practice from the Cold War to the Twenty-First Century. (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, 2008).
- Quester, George H. Deterrence before Hiroshima: The Airpower Background of Modern Strategy. (New Brunswick (U.S.A.): Transaction, 1986).
- Schelling, Thomas C. Arms and Influence. (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2009).
Deterrence in the “Second Nuclear Age”
- Colby, Elbridge. “Restoring Deterrence.” Orbis, Vol. 51, No. 3 (Summer, 2007), pp. 413-428.
- Kamp, Karl-Heinz, and David S. Yost, eds. “NATO and 21st Century Deterrence.” NDC Forum Paper 8 (May, 2009).
- Knopf, Jeffrey W. “The Fourth Wave in Deterrence Research.” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 31, No. 1 (Apr., 2010), pp. 1-33.
- Lupovici, Amir. “The Emerging Fourth Wave of Deterrence Theory—Toward a New Research Agenda.” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 54, No. 3 (Sept., 2010), pp. 705-732.
- Payne, Keith B. Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age. (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 1996).
- Payne, Keith B. The Fallacies of Cold War Deterrence and a New Direction. (Lexington: University Press of Kentucky, 2001).
- Munoz, SSgt. Megan J., and Dr. Matthew Crosston. "Diplomatic Counterterrorist Deterrence.” Air and Space Power Journal, Vol. 29, No. 4 (July – Aug., 2015), pp. 15-26.
- Rid, Thomas. “Deterrence beyond the State: The Israeli Experience.” Contemporary Security Policy, Vol. 33, No. 1 (Apr., 2012), pp. 124-47.
- Stone, John. “Al Qaeda, Deterrence, and Weapons of Mass Destruction.” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Vol. 32, No. 9 (Aug., 2009), pp.763-75.
- Trager, Robert F., and Dessislava P. Zagorcheva. “Deterring Terrorism: It Can Be Done.” International Security, Vol. 30, No. 3 (Winter, 2005/06), pp. 87-123.
- Vinson, Mark. “An Israeli Approach to Deterring Terrorism: Managing Persistent Conflict through a Violent Dialogue of Military Operations.” Prism, Vol. 5, No. 3 (2015), pp. 61-75.
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